Theweekendleader

First advance estimates of national income on Tuesday

New Delhi

06-January-2020

 The Statistics Ministry will release the first advance estimates of National Income, or GDP, data 2019-20 on January 7 amidst an over six-year low growth of 4.5 per cent registered in the July-September period, and 5 per cent GDP growth in the first quarter of the fiscal, official sources said on Monday.

With growth decelerating, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), at its December monetary policy review, pegged India's economic growth forecast down to 5 per cent.

The advance estimates are compiled using the Benchmark-Indicator method where sector-wise estimates are obtained by extrapolation of indicators like the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in the first seven months of the fiscal, financial performance of the listed private companies up to the quarter ending September, the first advance estimates of crop production, accounts of Central and state governments, indicators of deposits of credits, passenger and freight earnings of the railways, civil aviation and ports, and sales of commercial vehicles, among others, available for the first eight months of the fiscal.

With the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from July 1, 2017, and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue.

For the year 2019-20, the Budget estimates of tax revenue as provided by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) will be used for estimating taxes on products at current prices.

India's core sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month in November but the pace of contraction slowed to 1.5 per cent from 5.8 per cent in October led by growth in output of fertilizer, cement and refinery products, raising expectations of industrial production moving into the positive territory.

The eight infrastructure industries grew 0 per cent in April-November as compared to 5.1 per cent in the April-November period of 2018.

Industrial production contracted for the third month running in October when it shrunk to 3.8 per cent. IANS