Mahagathbandhan can get 3 of BJP's 8 in UP's II phase



Out of the eight seats going to polls in Uttar Pradesh on Thursday, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) might wrest three from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) if voting pattern in the 2014 is any indication.

The Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) -- are contesting unitedly as the 'Mahagathbandhan' in 2019. They had fought separately in 2014. 

If the votes polled by these parties in 2014 are added, the BJP would have lost Fatehpur Sikri, Nagina and Amroha but would have won Hathras, Mathura, Bulandshahar, Aligarh and Agra. 

On the five seats where the BJP appears strong despite Mahagathbandhan, the party has changed candidates on three seats. In Hathras reserved seat, Rajvir Diler Balmiki has replaced Rajesh Kumar Diwakar, the winner of last election. 

In 2014, Diwaker had faced Niranjan Singh Dhangar of RLD, Manoj Kumar Soni of BSP and Ramji Lal Suman of SP. Even if the votes of all his rivals are added, Diwaker still would have emerged the winner comfortably. 

While the Mahagathbandhan appears strong to win back some seats from the BJP, the additional factor in these elections is the Congress and Shivpal Yadav's Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA) fielding their own candidates. 

From Hathras, the Congress-led UPA has Triloki Ram as the contestant and PDA has Mithlesh Devi.

The BJP has changed candidate in Agra as well, where Satya Pal Singh Baghel is leading the party's charge against Mahagathbandhan's Manoj Kumar Soni, UPA's Preeta Harit and Ramji Lal Vidyarthi of PDA. 

In 2014, Dr. Ram Shankar Katheria had comprehensively beaten all his rivals who would not have matched his numbers even if they had fought together.

In Mathura, the BJP has retained Hema Malini, who had defeated Jayant Chaudhary of RLD, Pt. Yogesh Kumar Dwivedi of BSP and Chandan Singh of SP in 2014 is facing Kunwar Narinder Singh of Mahagathbandhan, Mahesh Pathak of UPA and Jagvir Singh of PDA.

Constituency-wise analysis of votes polled by main candidates in 2014 on the Uttar Pradesh seats going to polls on April 18.

Aligarh 2014

Winner -- Satish Kumar (BJP)
Votes polled -- 5,14,622

Zafar Alam of SP polled 2,26,284
Dr Arvind Kumar Singh of BSP polled 2,27,886
Bijendra Singh of Congress polled 62674

SP + BSP = 4,34,170
If Congress votes are added than BJP would have lost

Contestants in 2019

Satish Kumar Gautam -- BJP
Bijendra Singh Chaudhary -- UPA
Dr. Ajit Baliyan -- MGB
Deepak Chaudhary -- PDA

Hathras 2014

Winner -- Rajesh Kumar Diwaker of BJP, votes polled 5,44,277

Niranjan Singh Dhangar of RLD polled 86109
Manoj Kumar Soni of BSP polled 2,17,891
Ramji Lal Suman of SP polled 18,0891

SP+BSP+RLD = 4,84,891

Contestants in 2019

Rajvir Diler Balmiki -- BJP
Triloki Ram -- UPA
Ramji Lal Suman -- MGB
Mithlesh Devi -- PDA

Mathura in 2014

Winner -- Hema Malini votes polled 5,74,633
Jayant Chaudhary RLD polled 2,43,890
Pt. Yogesh Kumar Dwivedi of BSP polled 1,73,572
Chandan Singh of SP polled 36673

SP+BSP+RLD = 4,54,135

Contestants in 2019
Hema Malini -- BJP
Mahesh Pathak -- UPA
Kunwar Narendra Singh -- MGB
Jagvir Singh -- PDA

Amroha 2014

Winner -- Kanwar Tanwar Singh BJP votes polled 5,28,880

Farhat Hasan of BSP polled 1,62,983
Rakesh Tikait of RLD polled 9539
Humera Akhtar of SP polled 3,70,666

SP+BSP+RLD = 5,43,188

Contestants in 2019 

Kanwar Singh Tanwar -- BJP
Sachin Choudhary -- UPA
Kunwar Danish Ali -- MGB
Matloon Ahmad -- PDA

Nagina in 2014

Winner -- Yashwant Singh of BJP, votes polled 3,67,825
Girish Chandra of BSP polled 2,45,685
Yashwir Singh of SP polled 2,75,435

SP+BSP= 5,21,120

Contestants in 2019

Dr. Yashwant Singh -- BJP
Omvati Devi -- UPA
Girish Chandra -- MGB
PDA has not fielded candidate

Bulandshehar 2014

Winner -- Bhola Singh of BJP, votes polled 6,04,449
Anju urf Mushan of RLD polled 59116
Kamlesh of SP polled 1,28,737
Pradeep Kumar Jatav of SP polled 1,82,476

SP+BSP+RLD = 3,70,329

Contestants in 2019 
Bhola Singh -- BJP
Banshi Singh -- UPA
Yogesh Verma -- MGB
PDA has not fielded candidate

Agra in 2014

Winner -- Dr Ram Shankar Katheria of BJP polling 5,83,716

Upendra Singh of Congress polled 34834
Narayan Singh Suman of BSP polled 2,83,453
Maharaj Singh Dhangar of SP polled 1,34,708

SP+BSP = 4,18,161

Contestants in 2019

Satyapal Singh Baghel -- BJP
Preeta Harit -- UPA
Manoj Kumar Soni -- MGB
Ramjilal Vidyarthi -- PDA

Fatehpur Sikri in 2014

Winner-- Babulal of BJP polling 4,26,589
Amar Singh of RLD polled 24185
Rani Pakhwalika Singh of SP polled 2,13,397
Seema Upadhyay of BSP polled 2,53,483

SP+BSP+RLD = 4,52,993

Contestants in 2019
Rajkumar Chahar -- BJP
Raj Babbar -- UPA
Bhagwan Sharma aka Guddu Pandit -- MGB
Manisha Singh -- PDA